In almost all UP Exit Poll Results 2022, BJP seems to be getting a clear majority in Uttar Pradesh. BJP is being predicted a clear majority. According to exit polls, Samajwadi will perform better than before but it will stop long before power. The exit poll results are more or less telling about Mayawati’s party Bahujan Samaj Party as was being speculated during the election. One thing is clear that all the surveys (UP Exit Poll Results 2022) have predicted absolute majority for BJP in Uttar Pradesh. We are discussing here the reasons through which it can be understood that when BJP will come to power again.
Samajwadi Party failed to polarize Jat votes
Since the farmers’ movement, it was being speculated (UP Exit Poll Results 2022) that this time the Jat-dominated vote of the western region of the state is going to slip away from the BJP’s bag and it will be united and shifted to the Samajwadi Party. All the farmers of the state associated with the leadership of Rakesh Tikait were being seen as SP votes. Here Samajwadi Party had an alliance with Jayant Chaudhary. But despite all these efforts, the Jat vote did not unite in the Samajwadi Party.
The reason that Jat votes are not polarized towards the SP is that in Uttar Pradesh, till now, the two socially dominant castes, Yadav and Jat, mostly clash. Therefore, it is difficult for the Yadav leadership to get Jat votes in the very first attempt. Here, when Jat leaders met the Samajwadi Party, there was a situation of confusion about voting in Muslim votes because after the Muzaffarnagar riots before the 2017 elections, Muslim and Jat were considered as opposites of each other. When Jat votes came towards SP, the Muslim vote here shifted to Congress.
Effect of Modi Factor
The opposition always calls the BJP government a double engine government. By double engine the opposition means Modi and Yogi. From the first phase to the fourth phase, the names of Modi and Yogi were being taken together in the campaign of BJP, but from the fifth phase to the last phase, only Modi’s face was given priority. Due to which mutual misunderstandings within the BJP ended. Although Akhilesh Yadav always wanted that the election should be on the face of Akhilesh vs Yogi, Modi’s face could not come but BJP was successful in cashing in on Modi’s face.
Effect of free ration distribution scheme
The scheme of providing free ration to the poor by the central government is beneficial to the poor, especially the Dalit community, which is affecting the voting. Due to this scheme, neither the SP nor the Bhim Sena got a major part of the Dalit votes. It went to BJP and a part to Mayawati.
In the initial phase of the election, it seemed that Mayawati was not serious about this election. Due to which it was being speculated that the Dalit section, which was angry with the BJP, would lean towards the Samajwadi Party, but due to Mayawati’s activation in the mid-election, even that Dalit vote could not get to the SP, due to which there was a triangular contest in many seats.